軍售與達賴訪美關鍵時課,劉兆玄與智庫一席談 【Comment】有趣是劉兆玄。他已經卸任行政院長職位,專業是化學不是戰略,頂多是「文化總會會長」,會獲得討論戰略的機會,實在無法聯想。只能說,是馬總統的摯友,從而有很不尋常的機會到美東。所以,當時他冷水坑真的是談國事,只是「第八名們」不信而已。他一直都是馬的近支 or vice versa。 聯晚文章所說紐約時報的報導,大概是底下這篇吧?文章所言就是,由柯林頓到小布希,這種先硬後軟對中懷柔的政策已經讓美國確認不管用了──中國在幾乎所有項目上都與美國做對,而美國40年前的假設是只要中國富起來,就會進入國際秩序(西方範圍)中。顯然,那是不切實際的錯誤。 中國是個島,歷史上,這個島會在最強盛的時候鎖國。等著看吧~China is an isolated land., as George Friedman said. It just like an island anywhere. It will closed the door when it think it's strong and rich enough. This happens for times in its history. Let us wait and see... 劉兆玄和美智庫對談 軍售衝擊台美中關係? ●聯晚(2010.02.02) 前行政院長劉兆玄1日在紐約與美智庫學者會談, 花蓮民宿歐巴馬政府最新對台軍售成為焦點議題,美學者指出,北京這次反應強度超過往年,這是「壞消息;」但預期美中「都會克制,」不致擴大影響。 美學者與劉兆玄一致認為,軍售風波目前看來雷聲不小,是否跟著下大雨,仍待觀察;但至今基本上是美中衝突,衝擊的是美中關係,還未延燒到台灣,預期這次風波對台灣及兩岸關係的影響,應不會比對中美關係影響大。 劉兆亦指出,對台軍售激發的風雨,可能使今後一年美中關係更生波折,一些爭議性議題將更敏感。 美學者特別提醒劉兆玄,要注意紐約時報一日有關軍售那篇獨家報導,應是歐巴馬政府有意釋放訊息,代表對中政策一些新想法與新態度,值得台北留意。 美學者稱,歐巴馬政府有意對北京「硬」起來,這可能是華府對中政策新轉向,但能硬到什麼程度,仍待考驗。 美方學者基本上認為,這次軍售風潮不致對美中關係造成太大影響,美中會權衡自身利益,「有所克制,」適可而止。 劉兆玄一日上午與中午先後與美外交政策全國委會、美中關係全國委會等十餘名學者座談及會餐,出席者包括史瓦伯、柴 室內裝潢高利亞、魯道夫、孔傑榮、歐林斯、白麗娟等人。對台軍售成為焦點,佔據大部份時間,反映美學界對此議題的關注。 劉兆玄會後接受本報訪問時,作上述表示。劉兆玄昨晚抵紐約,此行重點為參加華府全美祈禱早餐會。 http://udn.com/NEWS/NATIONAL/NAT2/5402496.shtml News Analysis - With Arms for Taiwan, U.S. Sends Beijing a Message ... by ELENE COOPER WASHINGTON — For the past year, China has adopted an increasingly muscular position toward the United States, berating American officials for the global economic crisis, stage-managing President Obama’s visit to China in November, refusing to back a tougher climate change agreement in Copenhagen and standing fast against American demands for tough new Security Council sanctions against Iran. Now, the Obama administration has started to push back. In announcing an arms sales package to Taiwan worth $6 billion on Friday, the United States leveled a d 酒店工作irect strike at the heart of the most sensitive diplomatic issue between the two countries since America affirmed the “one China” policy in 1972. The arms package was doubly infuriating to Beijing coming so soon after the Bush administration announced a similar arms package for Taiwan in 2008, and right as tensions were easing somewhat in Beijing and Taipei’s own relations. China’s immediate, and outraged, reaction — cancellation of some military exchanges and announcement of punitive sanctions against American companies — demonstrates, China experts said, that Beijing is feeling a little burned, particularly because the Taiwan arms announcement came on the same day that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton publicly berated China for not taking a stronger position on holding Iran accountable for its nuclear program. While administration officials sounded a uniform public note, cautioning Bei 關鍵字行銷jing not to allow this latest tiff to damage overall relations, some administration officials suggested privately that the timing of the arms sales and the tougher language on Iran was calculated to send a message to Beijing to avoid assumptions that President Obama would be deferential to China over American security concerns and existing agreements. “This was a case of making sure that there was no misunderstanding that we will act in our own national security interests,” one senior administration official said. A second Obama administration official, also speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said pointedly: “Unlike the previous administration, we did not wait until the end of our administration to go ahead with the arms sales to Taiwan. We did it early.” But larger questions remain about where the Obama administration is heading on China policy, and whether the new toughness 保濕面膜 signals a fundamentally new direction and will yield results that last year’s softer approach did not. Beyond the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, management of the American relationship with China is one of Mr. Obama’s biggest foreign policy challenges. Flush with cash, China’s economy is growing mightily, and China has become one of the biggest foreign lenders to the United States. China also is an increasingly critical American trading partner and a global rival in influence and economic power. “The president’s view is that obviously we have to have a mature enough relationship with China that we can be candid and firm where we disagree and cooperate forcefully when we agree,” a senior administration official said. He insisted that the timing of the arms package and Mrs. Clinton’s tough words were “not designed to send a gratuitous message to China, but to demonstrate the firmness of our position.” China has a history of getting off to 買房子a tough start with American administrations. President Bill Clinton alienated Beijing with tough talk on human rights, even signing an executive order that made renewal of trade privileges for China dependent on progress on human rights. But Mr. Clinton reversed himself in 1994, saying that the United States and China would move forward faster on issues of mutual concern if Beijing was not isolated. Similarly, President George W. Bush’s first dealings with the Chinese were also fractious, including an effort to recover American airmen whose spy plane was forced down off the Chinese coast. “The Obama administration came in exactly the opposite,” said Steven Clemons, director of foreign policy programs at the New America Foundation. “They needed China on economic issues, climate change, Iran, North Korea. So they came in wanting to do this lovely dance with China, but that didn’t work.” Instead, China pushed back hard, including at the Copenhagen climate chan 代償ge summit meeting in December, when Beijing balked at American and European demands that China agree to an international monitoring system for emissions targets. Twice, the Chinese prime minister, Wen Jiabao, sent an underling to represent him at meetings with Mr. Obama, in what diplomats said was an intentional snub. Mr. Obama later had to track down Mr. Wen, surprising him and appearing at the doorway of a conference room where Mr. Wen was meeting with the leaders of South Africa, Brazil and India. The United States and China eventually reached a compromise on the monitoring agreement, but the whole incident left a bad taste in the mouths of many Obama administration officials, who believed China had deliberately set out to belittle Mr. Obama, and who were determined to push back and reassert American authority. “The Chinese,” said James J. Shinn, who was assistant secretary of defense for Asia during the Bush administration, “now seem to have a palpable sense of confidence that they’re m 土地買賣ore in the driver’s seat than two years ago, across a whole range of issues.” For Mr. Obama, the arms sale to Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province, may be only the first of many instances this year in which he will run afoul of Beijing. Some foreign policy experts said that the administration now seemed intent on poking at the sovereignty issues that have long been China’s Achilles’ heel. Mrs. Clinton noted on Friday that Mr. Obama would soon be meeting with the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama — a meeting that White House officials put off last summer to avoid alienating Beijing in advance of Mr. Obama’s China trip. China regards the Dalai Lama as an advocate of Tibetan independence. “China is feeling very confident these days, but the one thing that the Chinese freak out about consistently are sovereignty issues,” said Mr. Clemons of the New America Foundation. “So anything related to Taiwan or Tibet will get them going.” Added to that, the administration has been championin 關鍵字行銷g Internet freedom recently, another source of public tension with Beijing. China’s government is embroiled in a fight with Google over that company’s complaints about Internet censorship and hacking attacks it says originated in China. But the tougher American positions do not change the fact that Mr. Obama needs Chinese cooperation on a host of issues. Beyond his efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the president is also working with Beijing on similar ambitions in North Korea. And Mr. Obama announced in his State of the Union address last week that he planned to double American exports in the next five years, an ambitious goal that cannot be met unless he somehow persuades China to let its currency appreciate, making Chinese products more expensive in the United States and American products more affordable in China. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/01/world/asia/01china.html?scp=2&sq=arm%20sales&st=cse .msgcontent .wsharing ul li { text-indent: 0; } 分享 Facebook Plurk YAHOO! 酒肉朋友  .
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